Tuesday, August 28, 2007


My track record in predicting the future is not exactly stellar, but there are a few things that I think are likely to happen in the coming months that I'd like to get on the record now (and revisit later, if and when they do -- or don't, as the case may be).

  • In the wake of the Alberto Gonzales resignation, Bush will nominate another toadying, unqualified crony to take his place. He will obfuscate, evade and blatantly lie during his confirmation process. After a few softball questions, some hearty Republican back-slapping and minimal whimpering and hand-wringing on the part of the Democrats, he will be easily confirmed. Senator Joe Lieberman will announce that he can't imagine a better-qualified candidate, ever. Senator Dianne Feinstein will express some mild reservations, then confidently vote in his favor. The DoJ will remain as politicized and dysfunctional as it was under Gonzales.
  • In September, General David Petraeus will present his White House-written and approved report on the "progress" in Iraq. He will tell a glowing tale of wild success, and will let Congress know in no uncertain terms that the only way to continue that success will be to remain in Iraq for the next decade or so. The White House will crow, Republicans will line up behind the General, and timid Democrats, afraid of being labeled "soft on terror" or unsupportive of the troops, will meekly go along with the recommendation. Within 24 hours, the Republicans will accuse the Democrats of being soft on terror and of not supporting the troops. Thousands more Iraqis and Americans will die.
  • The investigation into the firing of US Attorneys under Gonzales (and orchestrated by Karl Rove) will get less and less attention, and will shortly fizzle out altogether.
  • The same will happen with every other Congressional investigation of Bush administration wrong-doing.
  • Another Republican Senator or Representative will be caught in a sex scandal. The media will ignore it after the first two or three days of breathless reporting and conjecture on how the scandal will hurt the Democrats.
  • Yet another Bush staffer or Cabinet member will resign in order to "spend more time with his family." Republicans and the media will blame Democrats for "politicizing the political process," and subjecting the poor dear to such extreme partisan rancor. Joe Lieberman will weep in public at the rank hatred and animosity displayed by his erstwhile colleagues in the Capitol building.
  • A number of administration-defending pundits will then attempt to turn that story of yet another rat deserting a sinking ship into a positive for the White House, saying that by having Mr. X leave, it gives the president a chance for a "fresh start," and that his poll numbers will soon be climbing as a result.
  • Here in California, the Republican effort to split the state's electoral votes by district will gather enough signatures to get on the ballot. A very well-funded campaign will then be launched, and it will most likely be voted into law in time for the 2008 election, thus effectively handing the Republican presidential nominee enough electoral votes to get elected. Florida in 2000, Ohio in 2004 and California in 2008. Get ready for President Giuliani -- or maybe President Romney.
  • The US will attack Iran before the end of the year. This will allow Bush to declare another state of national emergency, and then, a month or two later, he will announce "mission accomplished." We will then be in Iran for at least the next ten years, or until the world ends in a nuclear holocaust brought about as a direct result of the US attack. I'm betting on the latter.
I'll try to remember to come back to this post in a few months and see how my forecasting ability fared. That is, if we haven't been nuked back to the Stone Age by then.
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